Executive Decision-making under Conditions of Uncertainty: Lessons from Scenario Planning, Real Options Analysis, and the Kuu

نویسندگان

  • Marilyn Taylor
  • Karyl Leggio
  • David Bodde
چکیده

This paper provides overviews of two major concepts and methodologies --Scenario Planning (SP) from Strategic Management and Real Options Analysis (ROA) from Finance. The paper draws on the KUU (Known, Unknown, and Unknowable) framework to demonstrate the commonalities and differences among these two approaches and calls for their synergistic use.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Futurology of Multi-Criteria Decision Making Techniques Using Philosophical Assumptions of Paradigms in Scenario Writing

There are many opportunities and threats in the decision-making environment for managers, and an organization must use research and information systems to change, monitor, and anticipate this environment. Futurism reflects how tomorrow reality gives birth to tomorrow's reality is. The purpose of this research; Analyzing the role of futures studies in the existing patterns of critical factors of...

متن کامل

Policy options for value added to different levels of production

This paper presents an analytic procedure for the value added to different production levels with different policy options. The approach is stochastic and thus provides a framework for informed decision-making on productivity growth under uncertainty conditions. The model was applied to data collected from a firm and re-sults recommend that the firm should redevelop if in diversification and sy...

متن کامل

A Multi-Criteria Analysis Model under an Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Environment with an Application to Production Project Decision Problems

Using Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) to solve complicated decisions often includes uncertainty, which could be tackled by utilizing the fuzzy sets theory. Type-2 fuzzy sets consider more uncertainty than type-1 fuzzy sets. These fuzzy sets provide more degrees of freedom to illustrate the uncertainty and fuzziness in real-world production projects. In this paper, a new multi-criteria ana...

متن کامل

Sustainable Planning of Supply Chains in Large-Scale Systems with Real Options Analysis

This paper presents a structure that empower designing supervisory groups to survey the estimation of real options in projects of enormous scale, incompletely standardized frameworks actualized a couple of times over the medium term. Specific options writing is done using a methodology of planning the design and making prior decisions regarding the arrangements of specific options, with a recre...

متن کامل

A novel risk-based analysis for the production system under epistemic uncertainty

Risk analysis of production system, while the actual and appropriate data is not available, will cause wrong system parameters prediction and wrong decision making. In uncertainty condition, there are no appropriate measures for decision making. In epistemic uncertainty, we are confronted by the lack of data. Therefore, in calculating the system risk, we encounter vagueness that we have to use ...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2007